Election Update - Tuesday 20 April 2010
The Liberal Democrats’ surge and the Labour and Conservative responses
To the surprise of political parties and pundits alike, the Liberal Democrats have been taking the polls by storm in recent days. Following last week's Leaders' Debate, Nick Clegg has emerged from the shadow of Gordon Brown and David Cameron for the first time. Arguably a televised debate was only really going to benefit the lesser-known third leader anyway but Clegg does appear to have either struck a chord with the positive messages he sought to present, or simply served to highlight the level of dissatisfaction voters feel with the option of Brown or Cameron.
Regardless, the slightly hysterical reaction to Clegg's solid performance in the first Leaders' Debate presents a particular challenge for David Cameron. Given the significant number of Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginals, he is coming under some pressure to step up the direct attacks on the Lib Dems but that would be hugely risky and would represent a significant tactical change in his 'positive' national campaign.
On the evidence of Cameron’s comments at a small business event yesterday morning in Kennington he is going to take a more oblique approach, arguing that only a "decisive Conservative victory" will deliver "change" and that anything else will lead to political horse-trading and hence "more of the same". He kept up the criticism of Labour but did not directly mention the Liberal Democrats at all. That's the tactic nationally - of course, things are a bit more direct on the ground in the marginals.
Labour, meanwhile, are feeling a little freer to either attack the Lib Dems head-on, as they did at their press conference this morning, or smother them with affection as Brown attempted at times in the debate and as the former Liberal Democrat Lord Adonis has been doing for the last couple of weeks. However, if the ‘I agree with Nick’ tagline becomes too much to bear then Labour might have no option but to go on the offensive.
All this though ignores what the surge means to the Lib Dems themselves. Not since the heady days of the SDP-Liberal Alliance has the third party commanded such attention and in the 1983 election it was only the first-past-the-post electoral system that saved Labour from falling into third place in terms of seats. If the Lib Dems manage to maintain the momentum then Cameron may be forced, by electoral calculus alone, to go after Clegg and the Lib Dems.
As far as Clegg is concerned, with profile comes scrutiny. There has already been a backlash from some in the media claiming the surge in only a temporary blip and that there will be a return to 'business as usual' once the Lib Dem policies are scrutinised more closely. He has to put in another strong performance in the Thursday debate (22 April), although on the topic of foreign affairs the other leaders may be able to tackle Clegg on the grounds of his party’s ‘naivety’.
It will be interesting to see how all three approach the next debate. As it is being broadcast live on satellite television it is likely to have a far smaller audience - it could well be used as a sort of focus group for road testing changes in tactics ahead of the big finale on the BBC the week before polling day.
Whilst the weekend and Monday polls may show a Lib Dem boost (YouGov had the party as high as 33%), as a whole the polls are showing the Conservatives on 34%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 27%. This narrowing of the gaps makes the prospect of a hung parliament more likely still with both Labour and the Conservatives seeing a general decline in their levels of support. It has been suggested that the Lib Dems have, in particular, benefited from a swing from younger voters (well those under-35!).
